As an important raw material of steel and people's daily lives, it's basically in line with market conditions for most of the "golden three silver four", "Golden September and Silver October," the seasonal law.

　　Prior to 2013 and the overall market is still more obvious seasonal peak season operating rate increase, driven by positive market value on the probe, the amount of decline in the off-season market, supporting prices weakened, rational price down. However, since 2014, not the busy season, off-season more light, up-market weakness, but no decline in the bottom line until 2015, slipped to the bottom stage.

　　However, pre-dawn darkness as wanted, after we get through the rough times, the dawn finally appeared. Enter 2016, structural steel began to turn over their own masters, especially in a short period of less than a month after the Spring Festival, almost six months before the decline pulled back, although subsequently followed by a slight pullback, but the market as a whole showed a rising trend . As of March 31, it recorded a valuation of domestic steel 2407.32 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning has risen 514.32 yuan / ton. Post-market whether we can continue to pull up, the market inflection point will appear?

　　First, inventory. Starting current round of market upward in late December 2015, in terms of structural steel from the major steel mills more than the current policy has been steady climb, the courage to dare to climb from China's top five steel products (cold-rolled, hot-rolled , plate, rebar, wire rod) overall stocks at a low level, which is not to say that all of the power source, but it is also an important driving force to make the market stabilized. And structural steels, steel stocks continued to decline after the holiday, reaching a low point in 3 months early stage, which is followed by five of the billet and black soared laid an important foundation. Recently, the market as prices continue to pull up, the amount of steel stocks quickly transferred to distributors, the market has formed a steel plant and a secondary agent low stocks, and three or four agents Distributor inventory and increase the terminal face of the situation, the impact by this situation, even if steel mills have continued willingness to pull up sharply, but the market then set the power and space is insufficient. Huojin but short-term support, the market is no crash risk.

　　Second, the mentality. Has experienced several years of falling prices, the country's few profitable mills, steel mills in 2015 that the bankruptcy, restructuring, and other news about shutdown indefinitely, although it is for Iron Man was a nightmare period , but it certainly accelerated the resolve domestic steel overcapacity progress degree. And with the Festival of steel rose from the steel production complex messages, such as Guangfu like. This has resulted in supply-side to a certain extent has been restored, and in the end the overall demand situation is not very optimistic starting premise, the industry can continue to pull up the market outlook hold certain cynicism, fear of heights on the market caused by blindly following the hype chasing the higher reduction.

　　Third, demand. The terminal needs to start from the current point of view, there is still less than the first half of 2005, especially in terms of the steel structure, a distribution agents said that this year's shipments compared with 2005 fell by nearly 30%, although one of the words can not represent the whole, but it reflects to some extent the upstream and downstream demand is not completely out of the trough. But in recent years it is not busy season has become a consensus, but after April will usher in the traditional off-season, without a major positive boost, the market will continue to weaken the intensity of support. From the point of view changes in demand in previous years, the demand side is often mid-April to late has begun to show signs of fatigue.

　　Based on the above analysis, the recent efforts to support the market as a whole has begun to weaken, although some mills still represents the beginning of the policy is expected to pull up, but the market is continuing to be tested, the late start, this will be the test of the market or a certain impact.